======================================================================================================================= DOCUMENTATION FOR 2022 GENERAL ELECTION TURNOUT RATES Version: 0.1 Date: 5/30/2023 Author: Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida These data are released under an Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution License. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ======================================================================================================================= ============ VARIABLES ============ STATE ======= Long state name. STATE_ABV ======= State two-letter postal abbreviation. TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED ======= The total number of ballots counted by election officials in the 2022 November general election. Notes: - The total number of ballots counted is not the total number of ballots cast, which may include rejected provisonal ballots and rejected mail ballots. - The following states have not reported total ballots counted, so I report election results for the following offices: * Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Texas, and Wisconsin use total votes for Governor. * Missouri and Pennsylvania use total votes for US Senator * Mississippi uses total votes for House races * Tennessee uses Constitutional Amendment 1 * Certified results for Alabama offices suggest higher total turnout than total votes reported by the election night reporting system (used here as it is the highest number) * South Dakota confirmed that election night reporting system are official (they are mislabled as "unofficial" on the state website) SOURCE ======= Source for total ballots counted. Note that links may not persist. VAP ======= Voting-age population. Residential population age 18 and older. Source: Census Bureau's July 1, 2021 and July 1, 2022 voting-age population estimates, extrapolated to Nov. 1, 2022. NONCITIZEN_PCT ======= Percent non-citizen. Source: Non-citizen VAP estimates from the 2021 1-Year American Community Survey INELIGIBLE_PRISON ======= Ineligible felons in prison. A '0' denotes a state either does not disenfranchise felony prisoners or has no felony prisoners (this is true for DC). Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics. For non-reporting states I estimate the non-citizen felon population from similar adjacent states. Source for prison statistics: Year-end 2020 DOJ prison report Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: The Sentencing Project INELIGIBLE_PROBATION ======= Ineligbile felons who are on probation. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on probation. Source for probation statistics: Year-end 2020 DOJ probation and parole report. Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: The Sentencing Project INELIGIBLE_PAROLE ======= Ineligbile felons who are on parole. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on parole. Source for parole statistics: Year-end 2020 DOJ probation and parole report. Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: The Sentencing Project INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL ======= Total number of ineligible felons, the sum of INELIGIBLE_PRISON + INELIGIBLE_PROBATION + INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Notes: - The Department of Justice estimates 69% of the total probation are felons. I apply this adjustment to the estimate of ineligible felons on probation. - I do not have a reliable method of estimating the number of felons who are subjected to some form of post-correctional disenfranchisement, so I choose not to make this adjustment. - I add the number of prisoners in the custody of the US government to the national count of ineligible felons. ELIGIBLE_OVERSEAS ======= Ineligible overseas citizens, the sum of the number of overseas citizen civilans and military stationed abroad. Sources: Federal Voting Assistance Program November 2020 report, which estimates 2.9 million overseas citizen civilians. Defense Manpower June 2022 Report, which report 229,152 active duty military stationed overseas. Notes: - I do not have a reliable method of apportioning eligible overseas voters to the states, so I choose not to make esimtate state overseas eligible populations. VEP ======= Voting-eligible population. For state VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL. For national VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL + OVERSEAS_ELIGIBLE VEP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those eligible to vote. Calulcated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VEP VAP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those of voting-age. Calulcated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VAP Note: - The VEP turnout rate is the preferred turnout rate. I provide VAP turnout rates for some stakeholders, such as pollsters, who use VAP turnout rates.