======================================================================================================================= DOCUMENTATION FOR 2022 GENERAL ELECTION TURNOUT RATES Version: 1.2 Date: 10/6/2024 Author: Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida These data are released under an Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution License. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ======================================================================================================================= ============ VARIABLES ============ STATE ======= Long state name. STATE_ABV ======= State two-letter postal abbreviation. TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED ======= The total number of ballots counted by election officials in the 2022 November general election. Notes: - The total number of ballots counted is not the total number of ballots cast, which may include rejected provisional ballots and rejected mail ballots. - For most states, I use official state turnout reports in the noted SOURCE field. Some of these reports do not include total ballots counted. Others have inconsistent reporting between the official state reports and their reports to the US Election Assistance Commission's 2022 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS). I use the official state report unless I have cause to believe the official state report is an under-report, ususally when I suspect the official state report does not include write-in votes, undervotes, or overvotes. I use the US Election Assistance Commission's 2022 EAVS (available at: https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/2022_EAVS_Report_508c.pdf) For the following states: * Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin - Other notes: * Mississippi uses total votes for House races (the EAVS report has a lower number for total ballots counted) * Oklahoma appears to report the total votes counted for Governor in the EAVS report. I use the state election results for Governor. * South Dakota confirmed that election night reporting system are official (they are mislabeled as "unofficial" on the state website) - The following states do not reported total ballots counted, so I report election results for the following offices: * Kansas SOURCE ======= Source for total ballots counted. Note that links may not persist. VAP ======= Voting-age population. Residential population age 18 and older. Source: Census Bureau's July 1, 2022 and July 1, 2023 voting-age population estimates (Vintage 2023), interpolated to Nov. 1, 2022. NONCITIZEN_PCT ======= Percent non-citizen. Source: Non-citizen VAP estimates from the 2022 1-Year American Community Survey INELIGIBLE_PRISON ======= Ineligible felons in prison. A '0' or Null denotes a state either does not disenfranchise felony prisoners or has no felony prisoners (this is true for DC). Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics. Source for prison statistics: Year-end 2022 DOJ prison report, available at: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/prisoners-2022-statistical-tables Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_PROBATION ======= Ineligible felons who are on probation. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on probation. Source for probation statistics: Year-end 2022 DOJ probation and parole report, available at:: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2022 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights The Department of Justice estimates that felons constitute 64% of the total 2020 probation population (I use the percent with reporting statistics, excluding missing data). I apply this adjustment to the ineligible felon statistics. INELIGIBLE_PAROLE ======= Ineligible felons who are on parole. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on parole. Source for parole statistics: Year-end 2022 DOJ probation and parole report, available at:: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2022 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL ======= Total number of ineligible felons, the sum of INELIGIBLE_PRISON + INELIGIBLE_PROBATION + INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Notes: - The Department of Justice estimates 64% of the total probation are felons. I apply this adjustment to the estimate of ineligible felons on probation. - I do not have a reliable method of estimating the number of felons who are subjected to some form of post-correctional disenfranchisement, so I choose not to make this adjustment. - I add the number of prisoners in the custody of the US government to the national count of ineligible felony prisoners. ELIGIBLE_OVERSEAS ======= Eligible overseas citizens, including overseas citizen civilians and military stationed abroad. Sources: Federal Voting Assistance Program November 2022 report, which estimates 4.4 million overseas citizens, available at: https://www.fvap.gov/uploads/FVAP/Reports/rtc_20231113_V10_FINAL.pdf Notes: - I do not have a reliable method of apportioning eligible overseas voters to the states, so I choose not to estimate state-level overseas eligible populations. VEP ======= Voting-eligible population. For state VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL. For national VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL + OVERSEAS_ELIGIBLE VEP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those eligible to vote. Calculated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VEP VAP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those of voting-age. Calculated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VAP Note: - The VEP turnout rate is the preferred turnout rate. I provide VAP turnout rates for some stakeholders, such as pollsters, who use VAP turnout rates.