======================================================================================================================= DOCUMENTATION FOR 2018 GENERAL ELECTION TURNOUT RATES Version: 1.1 Date: 1/15/2024 Author: Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida These data are released under an Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution License. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ======================================================================================================================= ============ RELEASE NOTES ============ Version 1.1 - Fixes error in VAP calculations ============ VARIABLES ============ STATE ======= Long state name. STATE_ABV ======= State two-letter postal abbreviation. TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED ======= The total number of ballots counted by election officials in the 2018 November general election. Notes: - The total number of ballots counted is not the total number of ballots cast, which may include rejected provisonal ballots and rejected mail ballots. - The following states have not reported total ballots counted, so I report election results for the following offices: VOTE_FOR_HIGHEST_OFFICE ======= Vote for the highest statewide vote-getting office. In a presidential election this is almost always the presidential election and in a midterm it is US Senator or governor. Some states do not hold statewide governor elections in even years and may not have a US Senate election due to the staggered six-year terms. For these states, usually the combined totals for US Congress are used unless there is another statewide office which receives more votes. Exceptions in 2018: Louisiana: Amendment 1: Prohibit felons from public office North Carolina: Photo Voter ID Referrendum Utah: Proposition 2 (Medical Marijuana) SOURCE ======= Source for total ballots counted. Note that links may not persist. VAP ======= Voting-age population. Residential population age 18 and older. Source: Census Bureau's July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2018 voting-age population estimates, interpolated to Nov. 1, 2018. NONCITIZEN_PCT ======= Percent non-citizen. Source: Non-citizen VAP estimates from the 2018 1-Year American Community Survey. INELIGIBLE_PRISON ======= Ineligible felons in prison. A '0' or Null denotes a state either does not disenfranchise felony prisoners or has no felony prisoners (this is true for DC). Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics. Source for prison statistics: Year-end 2018 DOJ prison report: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/prisoners-2018 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_PROBATION ======= Ineligbile felons who are on probation. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on probation. Source for probation statistics: Year-end 2018 DOJ probation and parole report: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2017-2018 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights The Department of Justice estimates that felons constitutue 57% of the total 2018 probation population. I apply this adjustment to the ineligible felon statistics. INELIGIBLE_PAROLE ======= Ineligbile felons who are on parole. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on parole. Source for parole statistics: Year-end 2018 DOJ probation and parole report: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2017-2018 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL ======= Total number of ineligible felons, the sum of INELIGIBLE_PRISON + INELIGIBLE_PROBATION + INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Notes: - The Department of Justice estimates 57% of the total probation are felons. I apply this adjustment to the estimate of ineligible felons on probation. - I do not have a reliable method of estimating the number of felons who are subjected to some form of post-correctional disenfranchisement, so I choose not to make this adjustment. - I add the number of prisoners in the custody of the US government to the national count of ineligible felony prisoners. ELIGIBLE_OVERSEAS ======= The overseas eligible population estimate is a 2018 civilian estimates from the Federal Voting Assistance Program -- which reports 5.6 million overseas citizens in 2012 and 5.7 in 2014. This estimate is deflated by 76.0%, which is the percentage of the domestic citizen population that is of voting age according to the 2015 American Community Survey. Military personnel stationed overseas are added from a June, 2020 Defense Manpower Report. (Note: based on a survey of overseas voters, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that only 45.3% of overseas citizens are of voting age. Pending further investigation, I follow past practice of using an estimate from the domestic civilians.) - I do not have a reliable method of apportioning eligible overseas voters to the states, so I choose not to make esimtate state overseas eligible populations. VEP ======= Voting-eligible population. For state VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL. For national VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL + OVERSEAS_ELIGIBLE VEP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those eligible to vote. Calulcated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VEP VAP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those of voting-age. Calulcated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VAP Note: - The VEP turnout rate is the preferred turnout rate. I provide VAP turnout rates for some stakeholders, such as pollsters, who use VAP turnout rates.