======================================================================================================================= DOCUMENTATION FOR 2020 GENERAL ELECTION TURNOUT RATES Version: 1.2 Date: 10/6/2024 Author: Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida These data are released under an Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution License. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ======================================================================================================================= ============ VARIABLES ============ STATE ======= Long state name. STATE_ABV ======= State two-letter postal abbreviation. TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED ======= The total number of ballots counted by election officials in the 2022 November general election. Notes: - The total number of ballots counted is not the total number of ballots cast, which may include rejected provisonal ballots and rejected mail ballots. - The following states have not reported total ballots counted, so I report election results for the following offices: * Montana uses the US Senate election as the highest office since that race had the highest turnout. * Pennsylvania does not yet include write-in votes. * Kansas reported write-in votes for Sedgwick and Wyandotte counties only in their precinct results, which are included in the highest office vote total. SOURCE ======= Source for total ballots counted. Note that links may not persist. VAP ======= Voting-age population. Residential population age 18 and older. Source: Census Bureau's July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021 voting-age population estimates (Vintage 2023), interpolated to Nov. 1, 2020. NONCITIZEN_PCT ======= Percent non-citizen. Source: Non-citizen VAP estimates from the 2021 1-Year American Community Survey. Notes: The Census Bureau did not release a one-year ACS for 2020. I plan to update this when the 2018-2022 5 year ACS is available. I use the 2021 ACS over the 2019 ACS because the 2021 ACS uses the 2020 decennial census as the population base and thus is more consistent with the population estimates. INELIGIBLE_PRISON ======= Ineligible felons in prison. A '0' or Null denotes a state either does not disenfranchise felony prisoners or has no felony prisoners (this is true for DC). Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics. Source for prison statistics: Year-end 2020 DOJ prison report Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_PROBATION ======= Ineligbile felons who are on probation. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on probation. Source for probation statistics: Year-end 2020 DOJ probation and parole report: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2020 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights The Department of Justice estimates that felons constitutue 52% of the total 2020 probation population. I apply this adjustment to the ineligible felon statistics. INELIGIBLE_PAROLE ======= Ineligbile felons who are on parole. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on parole. Source for parole statistics: Year-end 2020 DOJ probation and parole report: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2020 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL ======= Total number of ineligible felons, the sum of INELIGIBLE_PRISON + INELIGIBLE_PROBATION + INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Notes: - The Department of Justice estimates 69% of the total probation are felons. I apply this adjustment to the estimate of ineligible felons on probation. - I do not have a reliable method of estimating the number of felons who are subjected to some form of post-correctional disenfranchisement, so I choose not to make this adjustment. - I add the number of prisoners in the custody of the US government to the national count of ineligible felony prisoners. ELIGIBLE_OVERSEAS ======= The overseas eligible population estimate is a 2018 civilian estimates from the Federal Voting Assistance Program -- which reports 5.6 million overseas citizens in 2012 and 5.7 in 2014. This estimate is deflated by 76.0%, which is the percentage of the domestic citizen population that is of voting age according to the 2015 American Community Survey. Military personnel stationed overseas are added from a June, 2020 Defense Manpower Report. (Note: based on a survey of overseas voters, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that only 45.3% of overseas citizens are of voting age. Pending further investigation, I follow past practice of using an estimate from the domestic civilians.) - I do not have a reliable method of apportioning eligible overseas voters to the states, so I choose not to make esimtate state overseas eligible populations. VEP ======= Voting-eligible population. For state VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL. For national VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL + OVERSEAS_ELIGIBLE VEP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those eligible to vote. Calulcated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VEP VAP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those of voting-age. Calulcated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VAP Note: - The VEP turnout rate is the preferred turnout rate. I provide VAP turnout rates for some stakeholders, such as pollsters, who use VAP turnout rates. ============ CHANGE HISTORY ============ v.1.1 - Updated population estimates to interpolated between July 1, 2020 and 2021 estimates (prior extrapolated from 2020 decennial census to July 1, 2020 population estimate). - Updated ACS noncitizen estimate from 2019 1-Year ACS to 1-year 2021 ACS estimate. The Census Bureau did not release a 1-year 2020 ACS and I regard the 2021 as more accurate since it is weighted to the 2020 decennial population base.