======================================================================================================================= DOCUMENTATION FOR 2024 PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES TURNOUT RATES Version: 1.0 Date: 1/15/2024 Author: Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida These data are released under an Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution License. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ======================================================================================================================= Note, these denominator statistics are not generally as current with primary source data releases as the general election statistics. ============ VARIABLES ============ DATE ======= Date of presidential nomination contest. Contest dates are drawn from The Green Papers and the Frontloading Blog STATE ======= Long state name. TYPE ======= Type of presidential nomination contest. - Primary (either state or party run) - Caucus Contest types are drawn from The Green Papers and the Frontloading Blog PARTY ======= Which state party is holding a contest for delegates. In some instances, state parties hold contests on different dates, and may use different types of contests. VEP ======= Estimated voting-eligible population as oif the 1st of the month of a primary contest. VEP consistents of the following components. For sake of parsimony, I do not provide the individual elements to the VEP components, as I do in general elections. - VAP Voting-age population. Residential population age 18 and older. Source: Census Bureau's July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019 voting-age population estimates, extrapolated to the 1st of the month of a primary contest. - NONCITIZEN_PCT Percent non-citizen. Source: Non-citizen VAP estimates from the 2018 1-Year American Community Survey - INELIGIBLE_PRISON Ineligible felons in prison. A '0' or Null denotes a state either does not disenfranchise felony prisoners or has no felony prisoners (this is true for DC). Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics. Source for prison statistics: Year-end 2017 DOJ prison report - INELIGIBLE_PROBATION Ineligbile felons who are on probation. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on probation. Source for probation statistics: Year-end 2017 DOJ probation and parole report - INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Ineligbile felons who are on parole. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on parole. Source for parole statistics: Year-end 2017 DOJ probation and parole report - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL Total number of ineligible felons, the sum of INELIGIBLE_PRISON + INELIGIBLE_PROBATION + INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Notes: - The Department of Justice estimates 56% of the total probation are felons. I apply this adjustment to the estimate of ineligible felons on probation. - I do not have a reliable method of estimating the number of felons who are subjected to some form of post-correctional disenfranchisement, so I choose not to make this adjustment. - I add the number of prisoners in the custody of the US government to the national count of ineligible felony prisoners. TURNOUT_DEM ======= Total votes in the Democratic nomination contest. TURNOUT_REP ======= Total votes in the Republican nomination contest. TURNOUT_MINOR ======= Total votes in minor party nomination contests. TURNOUT_TOTAL ======= Total votes in the nomination contest(s). For state-run primaries, this may include votes cast in contests other than the Democratic or Republican nomination contests, such as minor party nomination contests, under-votes or over-votes, or votes cast in non-partisan races (e.g., concurrent local elections or ballot questions). When party nomination contests are held on different dates, I provide TOTAL_TURNOUT after the second nomination contest is held. TURNOUT_RATE ======= The turnout rate of TOTAL_TURNOUT/VEP. Note I do not calculate this statistic until both party contests have been held. SOURCE ======= Source for turnout data. This may include different sources when party-run contests are run concurrently.