======================================================================================================================= DOCUMENTATION FOR 2022 GENERAL ELECTION TURNOUT RATES Version: 1.2 Date: 10/6/2024 Author: Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida These data are released under an Creative Commons 4.0 Attribution License. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ======================================================================================================================= ============ VARIABLES ============ STATE ======= Long state name. STATE_ABV ======= State two-letter postal abbreviation. TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED ======= TBD SOURCE ======= Source for total ballots counted. Note that links may not persist. VAP ======= Voting-age population. Residential population age 18 and older. Source: Census Bureau's July 1, 2022 and July 1, 2023 voting-age population estimates (Vintage 2023), extrapolated to Nov. 1, 2024. NONCITIZEN_PCT ======= Percent non-citizen. Source: Non-citizen VAP estimates from the 2022 1-Year American Community Survey INELIGIBLE_PRISON ======= Ineligible felons in prison. A '0' or Null denotes a state either does not disenfranchise felony prisoners or has no felony prisoners (this is true for DC). Starting in 2010, the Bureau of Justice Statistics began reporting citizen prison populations and voting-age populations. I subtract these populations from the prison statistics. Source for prison statistics: Year-end 2022 DOJ prison report, available at: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/prisoners-2022-statistical-tables Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_PROBATION ======= Ineligible felons who are on probation. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on probation. Source for probation statistics: Year-end 2022 DOJ probation and parole report, available at:: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2022 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights The Department of Justice estimates that felons constitute 65% of the total 2022 probation population (I use the percent with reporting statistics, excluding missing data). I apply this adjustment to the ineligible felon statistics. INELIGIBLE_PAROLE ======= Ineligible felons who are on parole. A '0' denotes a state does not disenfranchise felons on parole. Source for parole statistics: Year-end 2022 DOJ probation and parole report, available at:: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/probation-and-parole-united-states-2022 Source for state felon disenfranchisement laws: National Conference of State Legislatures. See: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/felon-voting-rights INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL ======= Total number of ineligible felons, the sum of INELIGIBLE_PRISON + INELIGIBLE_PROBATION + INELIGIBLE_PAROLE Notes: - The Department of Justice estimates 64% of the total probation are felons. I apply this adjustment to the estimate of ineligible felons on probation. - I do not have a reliable method of estimating the number of felons who are subjected to some form of post-correctional disenfranchisement, so I choose not to make this adjustment. - I add the number of prisoners in the custody of the US government to the national count of ineligible felony prisoners. ELIGIBLE_OVERSEAS ======= Eligible overseas citizens, including overseas citizen civilians and military stationed abroad. Sources: 1) Federal Voting Assistance Program November 2022 report of non-military citizens abroad, available at: https://www.fvap.gov/uploads/FVAP/Reports/2022-OCPA-Report_Combined_Final_20230925.pdf This report estimates 2.8 million overseas citizens of voting age as of 2022. I extrapolate 2020 to 2024 to arrive at an estimate of 3.1 non-military citizens abroad of voting-age. 2) Department of Defense Personnel reports (June 2024), available at: https://dwp.dmdc.osd.mil/dwp/app/dod-data-reports/workforce-reports The DoD reports 225,175 military personel stationed aborad. Together, these reports yield an estimate of 3,325,217 eligible overseas civilian and military voters. Notes: - I do not have a reliable method of apportioning eligible overseas voters to the states, so I choose not to estimate state-level overseas eligible populations. VEP ======= Voting-eligible population. For state VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL. For national VEP estimates use the following calculation: VAP*(1-NONCITIZEN_PCT) - INELIGIBLE_FELONS_TOTAL + OVERSEAS_ELIGIBLE VEP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those eligible to vote. Calculated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VEP TBD VAP_TURNOUT_RATE ======= Turnout rate for those of voting-age. Calculated as TOTAL_BALLOTS_COUNTED/VAP Note: - The VEP turnout rate is the preferred turnout rate. I provide VAP turnout rates for some stakeholders, such as pollsters, who use VAP turnout rates. TBD